It is a discovery that could save the life of million, and safeguard entire species. Researchers claim to have worked out how to accura...
It is a discovery that could save the life of million, and safeguard entire species.
Researchers
claim to have worked out how to accurately predict the eruption of
'supervolcanoes' that blanket the earth in giant ash clouds triggering a
'nuclear winter'.
They
say the discovery could reveal exactly when giant pools of magma
greater than 100 cubic miles in volume and formed a few miles below the
surface will erupt.
Repeatedly
throughout Earth's history,when they become a super-eruption, the
resulting gigantic volcanic outbursts that throw 100 times more
superheated gas, ash and rock into the atmosphere than run-of-the-mill
eruptions - enough to blanket continents and plunge the globe into
decades-long volcanic winters.
The
most recent super-eruption took place about 27,000 years ago in New
Zealand, well before humans kept records of volcanic eruptions and their
aftermath.
Geologists
today are studying deposits from past super-eruptions to try and
understand where and how rapidly these magma bodies develop and what
causes them to eventually erupt.
Despite
considerable study, geologists are still debating how quickly these
magma pools can be activated and erupted, with estimates ranging from
millions to hundreds of years.
Now
a team of geologists have developed a new 'geospeedometer' that they
argue can help resolve this controversy by providing direct measurements
of how long the most explosive types of magma existed as melt-rich
bodies of crystal-poor magma before they erupted.
They
have applied their new technique to two super-eruption sites and a pair
of very large eruptions and found that it took them no more than 500
years to move from formation to eruption.
These
results are described in the article 'Melt inclusion shapes:
Timekeepers of short-lived giant magma bodies' appearing in the November
issue of the journal Geology.
Geologists have developed a number of different 'timekeepers' for volcanic deposits.
Quartz crystal that developed in
molten magma. Black dots are blebs of molten rock captured in the
crystal when it formed. Using advanced 3-D X-ray tomography, the
researchers were able to measure the size and shape of the melt
inclusions with unprecedented precision.
The
fact that these techniques measure different processes and have
different resolutions, has contributed to this lack of consensus.
'Geologists
have developed a number of different 'timekeepers' for volcanic
deposits,' said Guilherme Gualda, associate professor of earth and
environmental sciences at Vanderbilt University, who directed the
project.
'The
fact that these techniques measure different processes and have
different resolutions, has contributed to this lack of consensus.
'Our new method indicates that the process can take place within historically relevant spans of time,'
The
method was developed as part of the doctoral thesis of Ayla Pamukcu,
who is now a post-doctoral researcher at Brown and Princeton
Universities.
'The hot spot under Yellowstone National Park has produced several super-eruptions in the past.
'The
measurements that have been made indicate that this magma body doesn't
currently have a high-enough percentage of melt to produce a
super-eruption.
But
now we know that, when or if it does reach such a state, we will only
have a few hundred years to prepare ourselves for the consequences,'
Gualda said.
The
researchers' geospeedometer is based on millimeter-sized quartz
crystals that grew within the magma bodies that produced these giant
eruptions.
Quartz crystals are typically found in magmas that have a high percentage of silica.
This type of magma is very viscous and commonly produces extremely violent eruptions. Mount St. Helens was a recent example.
The geologists use image process
method that describe the edges of a melt inclusion by set of points.
Next they use these points to create a 3-D polyhedron (red) that
represents the final shape of the melt inclusion.
When
the crystals form, they often capture small blobs of molten magma –
known as blebs or melt inclusions. Blebs are initially round.
While
the crystal is floating in hot magma, diffusion causes them to
gradually acquire the polygonal shape of the crystal void that they
occupy. But this faceting process can be halted if eruption occurs
before complete faceting is achieved.
Using
advanced 3-D X-ray tomography, the researchers were able to measure the
size and shape of the melt inclusions with exquisite precision.
In
cases where the inclusions had not become completely faceted, the
researchers could determine how much time had elapsed since they were
enclosed.
'Previous
studies provided us with the data we needed to calculate the rate of
the faceting process. We then used this rate, in combination with our
shape measurements, to calculate how long the crystal existed in the
magma before the eruption,' said Pamukcu.
In addition, the researchers compared the results obtained with faceting with results obtained using other techniques.
Crystallization
may cause variations in concentration of certain elements. In quartz,
the element titanium can vary sharply between different zones or layers
within the crystal.
Over time, however, the process of diffusion gradually smooths out these variations.
This
process also stops at the eruption, so the shallower the slope of
titanium concentrations across these boundaries today, the longer the
crystal spent in magmatic conditions.
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